Half the buyers out there are scared home prices are about to crash. The other half are hoping they will.
A recent survey from Clever found 58% of Gen Z buyers are actually rooting for a crash, just so homeownership feels within reach.
So, what do the forecasts actually say?
Every quarter, Fannie Mae surveys more than 100 housing experts on where prices are headed. The newest results are in. And spoiler alert: they’re not calling for a crash – not even the pessimists.
The panel's latest forecast has prices climbing every single year through at least 2030.
The panel's average forecast is that prices will rise by 14.7% in the next 5 years. And here’s where it gets really interesting. If you split these experts into optimists and pessimists, even the pessimists still expect prices to increase about 6.6% by the end of 2030 (see graph below):
The takeaway? If you've been waiting for prices to fall, you may be waiting a while.
One thing to keep in mind though – these are national numbers. Prices in your area could run a little hotter or a little cooler than this, so it helps to know what’s happening locally, too. But the big picture is prices aren’t crashing. Historically prices usually rise.
Here’s something you probably don’t realize. This survey runs 4 times every year, so you can track the panel's mood over time.
A year ago, the panel expected home prices to grow 2.1% this year. Now they’re forecasting 2.5%. That means the near-term outlook actually got more optimistic. But that’s only part of the story. The years after that shifted, too (see graph below):
Zoom out to 2027 through 2029 and the mood has cooled a bit. Each of those years is now expected to see a little less growth than the panel thought a year ago. That’s likely a reflection of where we are right now with everything that’s impacting the housing market.
But again, the overall takeaway here is every bar shows an increase in prices – the size of that increase has just moderated due to some of the factors at play.
A slower climb isn’t a bad thing, though. It’s a sign the market is settling into a more normal pace after a few wild years.
A little more growth here, a little less growth there. What hasn't budged once is the idea that home prices will keep growing.
Now, percentages are great, but you probably care more about the actual dollars and cents of your move, so let’s graph that out, too.
Run the numbers on a $400,000 home bought in January, and the panel's latest forecast puts you up about $58,000 in equity in 5 years just from price growth (see graph below):
That’s real wealth you could be building while others sit on the sidelines, waiting for a crash the experts don’t see coming. And with prices expected to keep rising, waiting could mean paying more for the same home later.
Whether you're bracing for a crash or hoping for one, the verdict is the same – prices are still expected to rise, not fall. Let's talk about what that means for your market and your plans.
Price cuts are turning up everywhere right now, and they read very differently depending on which side of the deal you’re on.
Sellers tend to worry a cut means walking away with less than they hoped. Sometimes that’s true, but more often it just means the market moved faster than the listing did.
Buyers, for their part, often assume a cut means something’s wrong with the house. Most of the time, that’s not it.
This is what's actually driving all those price cuts, and why it matters no matter which side of the deal you're on.
According to HousingWire Data, the share of sellers cutting their asking price has climbed every month for 7 straight months (see chart below):
Today, more than 4 in 10 active listings have had at least 1 price cut, and the typical seller is cutting about $17,560 off their original number.
Here’s why that’s happening. With rates still elevated and more homes to choose from, buyers can afford to wait for the right number. So, sellers who don’t start there often end up adjusting anyway.
What does that mean for you?
If you're selling, this isn’t a red flag. But it is a sign that pricing it right from day 1 is your best bet. Just know that the market's been shifting fast enough this year that sometimes even a well-priced house can fall behind within a matter of weeks. If that happens to you, dropping your price to catch up to where pricing actually stands today tends to bring in more buyers and helps you sell closer to true market value.
If you're buying, it's easy to assume a price cut means something's wrong with the house. But with cuts happening on more than 4 in 10 homes right now, the reality is sellers are just catching up to where the market already is. And with affordability still tight, that's exactly the kind of opening you need to get a better deal.
HousingWire Data also shows list prices are trending down nationally. That’s often a sign sellers are pricing more realistically from the start instead of listing high and getting stuck cutting later. List prices have fallen about $26,000 from last year's peak.
Some of that decline is seasonal, since list prices typically soften each winter before rebounding in the spring. So, expect asking prices to keep drifting a little lower before turning back around (see chart below):
Jake Krimmel, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains:
“That is good news for buyers, who are seeing lower asking prices and more room to negotiate, but it is also good news for sellers: Pricing to today’s demand is helping homes move and keeping more transactions alive in a high-rate environment.”
Translation – with rates still elevated, buyers can only stretch so far. Sellers who meet them where they are instead of holding out for unrealistic prices are the ones actually getting to closing. And doing that up front is always better than chasing the market later.
At the same time, Redfin data shows sellers now outnumber buyers by about 58%, the widest gap on record (see chart below):
That changes the power dynamics of the market – and impacts how homeowners should price their house. Nationally, about 7 in 10 markets now favor buyers or are trending that way.
For sellers, that means standing out matters as much as pricing. With more homes to choose from, buyers are comparing you directly against the competition. So, a little flexibility, like covering closing costs or being open on timing, can be what gets your house picked over another.
For buyers, it means more room to ask for a lower price, help with closing costs, repairs after inspection, or some combination of all 3. That’s especially true for homes that have already sat for weeks, where sellers are often the most willing to talk.
Price cuts are a normal part of today’s housing market, and both buyers and sellers can use them to their advantage. Let's look at what's actually happening with prices in your neighborhood, so you know exactly where you stand before you list or make an offer.
Selling your house this fall is absolutely doable. But there’s something you need to know about this time of year.
Buyer activity typically starts to slow while the number of homes for sale climb – and you need the right strategy to get attention in this type of market.
The good news? There’s a lot you can control.
From how you price and present your house to how you negotiate and respond to feedback. Here are four things you’ll want to get right this fall.
In the fall, there are typically fewer buyers looking and more homes for them to choose from. So, you want to make the most of every buyer who comes across your house.
And your price is one of the first things that can make them stop and take a closer look – or keep scrolling.
That’s why this isn’t the time to start high “just to see what happens.”
If buyers think your house is overpriced, they have plenty of other options to move on to. And that could leave you sitting and waiting.
So, if you want to sell before year-end, work with your agent to find the right price for your house and today’s market. That may mean listing at market value – or even slightly below it – to grab buyers’ attention.
Redfin explains how a seemingly small difference can change your buyer pool:
“Buyers often search in round-number price brackets, so pricing at $499,000 instead of $505,000 can make your home appear in more searches and feel like a better deal.”
When buyers had very few homes to choose from, they were often more willing to overlook dated finishes or a house that needed some work. That’s harder to count on now.
With more choices, how your house looks online and in person can determine whether it makes a buyer’s shortlist at all.
That doesn’t mean you need a full renovation before you sell, but you should take care of essential repairs, do what you can to boost curb appeal, and make sure your house photographs well. Maybe that’s some light staging, maybe it’s swapping out faucets or lights, or maybe a fresh coat of paint. Small details can help a lot.
After all, you only get one chance to make that first impression. Make it count.
Some sellers are still expecting the kind of leverage they had a few years ago. But in many markets, buyers have more negotiating power today and there’s a lot more give and take.
The latest data from Redfin shows 46.2% of sellers gave buyers some type of concession. So, consider throwing in a little help with closing costs or covering a repair. Almost half of sellers are.
The takeaway? Playing hard ball may not get you what you want. But being flexible might. The key is not getting so focused on “winning” every individual negotiation that you lose sight of the bigger goal: making your move happen.
Sometimes a small concession is what gets you to the closing table.
Sometimes your house tells you when something isn’t working. Maybe you’re getting plenty of online views but very few showings. Or buyers are coming through, but you’re not getting offers. Or maybe buyer feedback has one recurring theme.
Pay attention to those signals. They can help you figure out what needs to change.
Let’s say your price is the most common point of feedback. Talk to your agent about a price drop. It doesn’t have to be a big change to make a big difference. The average price cut right now is 4% according to HousingWire Data. That’s normal.
Now, that doesn’t mean you should panic and slash your price after a week. It means you and your agent should pay attention to what buyers are telling you and adjust if you need to.
Sometimes the smartest move isn’t waiting for the right buyer. It’s making sure you’re giving that buyer a reason to act.
Selling this fall is absolutely doable. And now you know four of the biggest things to get right.
If you want to sell before the end of the year, let’s make sure you have a winning strategy from day one.
Summer's winding down, and if you've been thinking about selling, you might be wondering if you missed your chance. Better to wait until next year or even next spring, right?
Not so fast. About one in three of all home sales happen in the last four months of the year.
Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows around a third of existing home sales happen in the final four months of the year. And that share has grown every year since 2023 (see graph below):
According to forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), NAR, and Wells Fargo, there will be about 4.16 million existing home sales this year. Based on how many sales have happened so far, that means roughly 1.4 million sales are expected between now and December.
That's about 11,800 houses selling every single day this fall.
So, the market isn't frozen and you don’t need to put your plans on ice either. Yes, higher rates are keeping some buyers on the sidelines. But hold out for next spring, and you'll sit out months when other serious buyers are ready to move before the new year.
How do you get in front of those buyers who are still out there looking right now? Getting your house sold this season comes down to how well it's priced and presented, and that's where a local agent shines.
A good agent knows what buyers in your area want right now, prices your house to match this fall's market, and positions it to stand out to the serious buyers shopping before year-end. From the first photo to the final offer, they handle the details that turn your house on the market into one of the 11,800 selling every day.
Listing this fall doesn't mean your house will sit on the market until spring. Buyers are out there right now, ready to make a move before the new year – and your window is still open.
Let's connect and make yours one of the homes that sells this season.
For most first-time buyers, the hardest part of buying a home is making the numbers work. You budget, you save, and the finish line still feels far away.
But your salary is only half the equation. Where you live shapes what you can afford just as much. And if you can work remotely, you have an advantage a lot of buyers don't.
You're not tied to living where the jobs are, so you can look where your money goes further.
Remote job openings are on the rise. According to FlexJobs, remote job postings climbed 22% from the quarter before. That’s the second quarter in a row of double-digit growth.
More remote roles mean more people can choose a home base around the life they want to build. As Forbes puts it:
“Remote employees, freelancers, consultants, entrepreneurs, and business owners have the flexibility to choose a home base based on the life they want to build, whether that means more space, a lower cost of living, better access to nature, or simply somewhere new."
And you can use that freedom to look somewhere more affordable.
Your cost of living – what you spend on housing, groceries, utilities, and the rest of daily life – varies a lot from one state to the next. In some, according to data from Extra Space, it runs far enough below the national average to change what you can afford (see map below):
Take Mississippi, for example, where the cost of living sits about 17% below average, or West Virginia at roughly 15% below. When day-to-day life costs less, you can put more of your income toward your goals, homeownership included. Relocate Right describes it this way:
"Remote work has fundamentally changed the calculus of where to live. When your employer is in San Francisco, but you can work from anywhere, the question is no longer 'where are the jobs' but 'where does my salary go furthest and what kind of life can I build.'"
For a first-time buyer, working remotely could be a chance to put down roots and finally buy. Because with that kind of flexibility, you get to choose where to live and which places work best for your life and goals.
A lower cost of living is a great start. But it’s also important to consider the things a budget spreadsheet won't show you, because a place can look like a great fit on paper and still not feel like home.
Is the internet fast and steady enough to do your job without interruptions?
Will it be easy to make friends and settle into a routine once you arrive?
Does it have the amenities you want, like public transportation or decent takeout?
This is where a local real estate agent comes in. They can help you weigh a big move against a nearby one, because every state has more affordable pockets. Sometimes they’re closer than you think.
An agent will know which neighborhoods fit your budget and have the features you're after, whether that’s walkability, good restaurants, parks, or a nearby farmer’s market.
With remote work, where you live can be your decision instead of your employer's. And that puts more affordable places within reach.
Want to explore where that could take you? Let's connect.
You're scrolling through listings on your phone and everything looks good until you see the price (or the estimated monthly payment). Then you close the app.
Because even if you love the house, the numbers feel impossible. But here's the thing.
Nationally, there are more homes sitting on the market than there are people out there looking. And when sellers need buyers more than buyers need sellers, that shows up in the price.
Lower asking prices. More price cuts. And homes priced for what buyers can actually afford – not what sellers hope someone might pay.
And it may be enough to make buying more doable than you’d think.
One of the clearest signs sellers are adjusting? Price cuts. HousingWire Data shows more than 40% of sellers are dropping this price.
That’s just slightly behind the volume we saw last year (see graph below):
That’s more than 4 out of every 10 homes listed. Think about what that means. That's thousands of sellers deciding they'd rather lower their asking price than keep waiting for someone willing to stretch their budget.
They know that to sell, they have to be willing to do some give and take. And when no buyers are biting, they’re pulling their biggest lever to draw buyers back in – their price. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:
"This is a market where people are adjusting and showing up rather than giving up. Sellers are meeting the market with more realistic asking prices, which is helping deals get done."
What about the other 6 in 10 sellers? A lot of them started with a lower asking price to begin with rather than test the higher price and get crickets from buyers.
That may be why July 2026 had the lowest median list price of any July in the past five years, according to Realtor.com (see the white line in the graph below):
Now, that doesn't mean home values are falling or that everything's suddenly a steal. Prices are still above where they were before the pandemic. But what it does mean is this.
Sellers no longer banking on bidding wars or expecting buyers to pay whatever they ask. Instead, many are listing at prices that better reflect today's market from the very beginning.
And honestly, whether they're pricing competitively from day one or adjusting after a few weeks on the market, the message for you is the same:
Sellers are more willing to meet you where you’re at.
Because in many markets throughout the country, you're not fighting over a house anymore. Sellers are fighting over you. And that’s information you can use to get a better deal.
Yes, affordability can be a real challenge. And the monthly payment you take on definitely does matter. But if you've been assuming everything is out of budget, there may be more wiggle room than you think.
Right now, sellers are flexible on the price in ways they weren't before. Let’s take advantage of that flexibility.
You may be surprised by what's available – and how willing today's sellers are to work with buyers.
Ask around and almost every homebuyer out there wants to know if there’s a way to get a better deal. And just about every seller wants to know if they'll still get top dollar.
The interesting thing is... both can be right at the exact same time. It just depends on where you live.
That's because today's housing market isn't moving in one direction anymore. Some markets clearly favor buyers. Others still favor sellers. But most are sitting somewhere in the middle.
And knowing which market you're actually in can completely change the strategy you use to buy or sell (and what expectations you should have). Let’s break it down.
So how do you know which market you're in? There's one number that tells the story faster than anything else: the months' supply of homes for sale. It's the clearest signal of who's got leverage – and what strategy you'll need. Think of it like this.
Imagine no additional homes were listed starting today. Months' supply tells us how long it would take to sell everything that's currently on the market based on today’s demand.
Generally speaking, if months’ supply is:
Fewer than 4 months: Sellers usually have the advantage.
4 to 6 months: Buyers and sellers are on more equal footing.
More than 6 months: Buyers can usually negotiate for a better deal.
Right now, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) data says that number is 4.6 and that puts the overall market back in balanced territory (see graph below):
That means, as a whole, the market has finally moved back into a much more balanced range after years of being tilted in sellers’ favor. While that may look like the scales have tipped only slightly, it’s enough to make a real difference in what strategy you’ll need for your move – at least in most places.
Redfin data helps shed some light on how this shakes out across the country. It breaks down which cities are leaning in either direction (see graph below).
Some markets give buyers more leverage. Those are in blue.
Some still favor sellers. That’s the orange.
Others fall somewhere in between. Those are gray.
Notice anything? A lot more places are seeing more buyer-friendly conditions right now. In fact, this is the most buyer-friendly market we’ve seen in nearly 6 years.
But don’t take that as buyers have the upper hand everywhere.
There are still cities where sellers still have the power. And if you're in one of them, your approach to selling or buying looks completely different than it would in a buyer-leaning market.
That’s why the biggest mistake isn't thinking it's finally a buyer's market. And it isn't thinking it's still a seller's market either. It's making any assumption without talking to an expert agent first.
Today’s market is incredibly local. In one market, a buyer may be getting thousands of dollars in concessions from a seller. And a homeowner may have to consider dropping their price.
But in another, a buyer may be stressed about coming in with their best offer, or they may lose out on the home to another buyer. And a seller may still be seeing strong demand and prices inching higher.
Same overall housing market.
Very different experiences.
The truth is what’s happening in your back yard affects everything from pricing your house to making an offer to negotiating repairs or concessions. And that’s why an agent’s local knowledge matters more now than ever before.
Your plan has to be based on your neighborhood – and only an agent has the expertise to get that right.
This market isn’t one-size-fits-all.
If you're wondering who has the upper hand where we live, let's talk. I'll show you exactly what the numbers look like in our market – and what strategy gives you the best shot at getting what you want.
If you own a luxury house, you're in a stronger spot than most sellers right now. While much of the market has cooled, the high-end tier hasn't. Sale prices and buyer demand are both up. So if you're considering selling, now could be a great time to make your move.
Let’s start with prices. But before we get into it – what actually counts as a luxury home? Generally, these are homes in the top 5% price range for the area, so it varies depending on where you live.
But what’s interesting is that according to the latest data from Redfin, sale prices for luxury houses have risen about three times faster than for non-luxury.
Right now, the typical home’s sale price is up about 1.5% year-over-year. But high-end homes? Their sale prices have gone up nearly 5% since last year (see graph below):
That’s a bigger deal than it sounds like.
Despite all the talk about slowing price growth lately, sale prices in this segment of the market may be rising faster than you’d expect based on the headlines. That’s going to be a good thing if you’re thinking about selling. And rising sale prices are only half the story.
While so many headlines are talking about how buyers are pulling back, that’s not necessarily true when it comes to luxury homes. In fact, right now, it looks like the higher the price point, the more active the buyers.
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist with the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:
"The luxury market has really performed better compared to the lower price point. . . . if we look at price points, any home priced under $250,000, virtually no change in unit sales from one year ago. Then you go into the upper price category, and home sales are up about 10% from one year ago. But the million dollar-plus homes, it is up by 18% from one year ago."
Basically, more homes are selling on the upper end of the market. A big reason is that high-end buyers tend to feel less of the affordability pressure weighing on many households today, so they keep buying even when the wider market slows.
That demand also means that luxury houses don’t stay on the market as long as they used to.
According to the most recent data from Redfin, for luxury homes the median number of days on market is under 50. That’s much faster than pre-pandemic norms going even as far back as 2014 (see graph below):
That means you probably won’t spend a ton of time sitting in limbo wondering when you’ll get an offer.
Selling a high-end house is a big decision, and you deserve to feel confident going in. With sale prices climbing and buyers active at the top, this is a strong window to make your move.
Ready to cash in? Let’s talk strategy.
You've probably heard that home prices are cooling off. And that's true – nationally. But zoom in on individual markets across the country, and the picture looks completely different depending on where you are.
Some areas are still seeing solid price growth. Others have gone flat. A few have actually dipped slightly negative. So, what's causing all of that variation?
Here's the simple version:
When there are more homes for sale, buyers have options.
More options, means less competition.
Less competition means sellers can't push prices as high.
On the flip side, when inventory is tight, buyers are competing over a small pool of homes, and that pushes prices up.
That dynamic is playing out right now in a really visible way across the country.
Markets where inventory has climbed back to, or above, normal pre-pandemic levels are seeing prices flatten or fall slightly. Markets where inventory is still well below those 2019 benchmarks are still seeing prices rise. As Lance Lambert, CEO of ResiClub, puts it:
"Home prices are still climbing a little year-over-year in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest.In contrast, some pockets in states like Texas, Florida, and Colorado — where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels by a solid clip — are seeing modest home price pullbacks or flat pricing."
"Home prices are still climbing a little year-over-year in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest.
In contrast, some pockets in states like Texas, Florida, and Colorado — where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels by a solid clip — are seeing modest home price pullbacks or flat pricing."
Take a look at where inventory stands today compared to 2019. In most places (the states in gray below), inventory still falls short of where we were back then. And that’s exactly why prices are climbing, albeit moderately, in the vast majority of states.
But you’re probably more interested in where prices are falling a bit, since that’s what is making headlines. So, let’s prove out how much inventory affects prices in those spots.
According to Realtor.com, 15 states and Washington, D.C. are now back above pre-pandemic inventory levels, and some by a wide margin (see the orange in the map below):
Now, let’s look at the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data to see what's happened to home prices in those same states over the past year (again, you’ll want to focus on the orange in the next map).
See how those line up pretty closely with the areas seeing more homes for sale today?
The overlap isn't a coincidence. It's cause and effect.
The national average of 1.7% price growth is accurate, but it's an average of two very different stories happening at the same time – the few areas experiencing mild declines and the overwhelming majority that are still seeing prices rise.
If you're a buyer, the market you're shopping in matters a lot right now. In places like Texas, Colorado, or Florida, you may have real negotiating power – more choices, less competition, and sellers who are more motivated to make a deal. In tighter markets like much of the Northeast, you're still likely facing a lot of competition.
If you're a seller, pricing strategy is everything. In markets where inventory has risen, overpricing is one of the fastest ways to linger on the market and eventually sell for less than you would have with the right price from day one. In markets where inventory is still low, you're in a strong spot, but getting your price right still matters if you want to attract serious buyers quickly. Either way, that's where a local real estate agent earns their keep.
When it comes to prices, where you are matters more than ever right now, and a local real estate agent is the best person to help you make sense of it.
Reach out today and let's build a plan that fits our market.
If affordability has been the biggest thing standing between you and a home, there's a little good news.
Asking prices have started to come down.
The typical seller listed their house for a median of $429,500 in May. That’s 2.4% lower than a year ago, according to Realtor.com. On its own, that won't transform what you can afford, but in today’s market every little bit helps and it signals a broader shift taking place.
Check out this data from Realtor.com and you can see this is the first May in years where buyers have caught any sort of break price-wise.
Each May from 2022-2025, things held pretty steady. But this year? You can see that more noticeable shift in your favor (see graph below):
While the dip from $440,000 to $429,500 isn’t a big one, it gives you more breathing room. And that’s not a small thing when affordability has been this tough.
Now, lower asking prices don’t mean every home is suddenly within your range. But they do show buyers are gaining a little ground.
And in today’s market, a little ground can go a long way.
And just in case this crossed your mind, this is good news for your move, not bad news for the market as a whole.
The subtle dip from last May to this one shows prices are easing, but they’re not dropping off a cliff. What this is actually a sign of is that the market’s rebalancing now that the number of homes for sale has grown.
Buyers have a bit more power again, and sellers know they can't name just any price and expect their house to sell. They either meet the market where it is, or face a price cut later. And in general, sellers would rather avoid a price cut. As the New York Post explains:
"Rather than swinging for the fences with pandemic-era price tags, sellers are increasingly coming to terms with a new reality. The share of listings featuring price cuts actually fell to 17.5% in May, suggesting homeowners are doing their homework before putting up a “For Sale” sign instead of chasing unrealistic numbers and cutting later."
This signals a broader change in the market.
Seller expectations have been skewed a little high since the pandemic buying frenzy – you've probably felt that firsthand. But now, things are starting to normalize. It could mean less back-and-forth to land on a fair number. And homes should be priced a bit more realistically from the start.
If affordability has been your top concern, the recent dip in prices is an opening. Want to see what that looks like in our area? Let’s connect.