As we enter the final months of 2020 and continue to work through the challenges this year has brought, some of us wonder what impact continued economic uncertainty could have on home prices. Looking at the big picture, the rules of supply and demand will give us the clearest idea of what is to come.
Due to the undersupply of homes on the market today, there’s upward pressure on prices. Consider simple economics: when there is high demand for an item and a low supply of it, consumers are willing to pay more for that item. That’s what’s happening in today’s real estate market. The housing supply shortage is also resulting in bidding wars, which will also drive price points higher in the home sale process.
There’s no evidence that buyer demand will wane. As a result, experts project price appreciation will continue over the next twelve months. Here’s a graph of the major forecasts released in the last 60 days:
Some are concerned that homeowners who entered a mortgage forbearance plan might face foreclosure once their plan ends. However, when you analyze the data on those in forbearance, it’s clear the actual level of risk is quite low.
Ivy Zelman, CEO of Zelman & Associates and a highly-regarded expert in housing and housing-related industries, was very firm in a podcast last week:
“The likelihood of us having a foreclosure crisis again is about zero percent.”
With demand high, supply low, and little risk of a foreclosure crisis, home prices will continue to appreciate.
Originally, many thought home prices would depreciate in 2020 due to the economic slowdown from the coronavirus. Instead, prices appreciated substantially. Over the next year, we will likely see home values rise even higher given the continued lack of inventory of homes for sale.
The 2020 housing market has surpassed all expectations and continues to drive the nation’s economic recovery. The question is, will this positive trend continue throughout the rest of the year, especially given the uncertainty around the current health crisis, the upcoming election, and more?
Here’s a look at what several industry-leading experts have to say.
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors
“Home sales continue to amaze, and there are plenty of buyers in the pipeline ready to enter the market…Further gains in sales are likely for the remainder of the year, with mortgage rates hovering around 3% and with continued job recovery."
Frank Martell, President and CEO, CoreLogic
"Homeowners’ balance sheets continue to be bolstered by home price appreciation, which in turn mitigated foreclosure pressures…Although the exact contours of the economic recovery remain uncertain, we expect current equity gains, fueled by strong demand for available homes, will continue to support homeowners in the near term."
Zillow
“Zillow's predictions for seasonally adjusted home prices and pending sales are more optimistic than previous forecasts because sales and prices have stayed strong through the summer months amid increasingly short inventory and high demand.The pandemic also pushed the buying season further back in the year, adding to recent sales. Future sources of uncertainty including lapsed fiscal relief, the long-term fate of policies supporting the rental and mortgage market, and virus-specific factors, were incorporated into this outlook.”
“Zillow's predictions for seasonally adjusted home prices and pending sales are more optimistic than previous forecasts because sales and prices have stayed strong through the summer months amid increasingly short inventory and high demand.
The pandemic also pushed the buying season further back in the year, adding to recent sales. Future sources of uncertainty including lapsed fiscal relief, the long-term fate of policies supporting the rental and mortgage market, and virus-specific factors, were incorporated into this outlook.”
Many economists are in unison, indicating the housing market will continue to fuel the economy through the end of the year, maintaining this unprecedented strength.
Many industries have been devastated by the economic shutdown caused by the COVID-19 virus. Real estate is not one of them.
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist for First American, just reported:
“Since hitting a low point during the initial stages of the pandemic, the only major industry to display immunity to the economic impacts of the coronavirus is the housing market. Housing has experienced a strong V-shaped recovery and is now exceeding pre-pandemic levels.”
Buyer demand is still strong heading into the fall. ShowingTime, which tracks the average number of buyer showings on residential properties, just announced that buyer showings are up 61.9% compared to the same time last year. They went on to say:
“Normally, real estate activity begins to slow down in the late summer, but this year it peaked in July, August and into September.”
Purchaser demand is so high, the market is running out of available homes for sale. Just last week, realtor.com reported:
“Since the beginning of the COVID pandemic in March, nearly 400,000 fewer homes have been listed compared to last year, leaving a gaping hole in the U.S. housing inventory.”
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) revealed that, while home sales are skyrocketing, the inventory of existing homes for sale is dropping dramatically. Below is a graph of existing inventory (September numbers are not yet available):Homebuilders are increasing construction, but they cannot keep up with the high demand. Bill McBride, founder of the Calculated Risk blog, in discussing inventory of newly constructed houses, notes:
“The months of supply decreased to 3.3 months...This is the all-time record low months of supply.”
Anyone thinking of putting their home on the market should not wait. A seller will always negotiate the best deal when demand is high and supply is limited. That’s exactly the situation in the real estate market today.
Next year, when the pandemic is hopefully behind us, there will be many more properties coming to the market. Don’t wait for that increase in competition in your neighborhood. Now is the time to sell.
Let’s connect today to get your house on the market at this optimal time to sell.
Once the kids have left the nest, you may be wondering what to do with all of the extra space in your home. Chances are, you don’t need four bedrooms anymore, and it may be a great time to sell your house and downsize, maybe even into a single-story home. You’ve likely gained significant equity if you’ve lived in your home for a while, so making a move while demand for your current house is high could be your best step forward toward the retirement goals you set out to achieve several years ago.
The dilemma, though, is where to go next. A big concern for many homeowners who are ready to sell is finding a home to move into, given today’s lack of houses available for sale. There is, however, some good news: the number of single-family 1-story homes being built today is on the rise, improving your odds of finding the right home for your changing needs. In a recent article, The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) explains:
“Nationwide, the share of new homes with two or more stories fell from 53% in 2018 to 52% in 2019, while the share of new homes with one story grew from 47% to 48%.”
Here’s a map showing the breakdown of newly constructed homes being built by region, and the percentage of 1-story and 2-story homes in that mix:
Still not sure about buying a single-story home? An article from Home Talk covers several advantages of switching from two floors to one:
1. Energy Efficient
“It is easier to heat and cool a single-story house [than] it would be to regulate the temperatures of a multi-story house.”
Most single-story homes only need one heating or cooling unit, and they typically stay cooler than a two-story home, both of which can lead to significant savings.
2. Easier to Maintain
“Doing a general cleaning in a single story requires less effort and you will be able to see all areas that need cleaning and the areas are easily accessible.”
Cleaning and maintenance of a single-story home can take less time and effort, and better upkeep helps improve the overall value of the home.
3. Accessible for Everyone
“A single-story house can be accessed by anyone, whether they are young children or the senior citizens.”
If you’re looking for a house that provides a safe and easily accessible environment at any age, a single-story home may be optimal.
4. Good Resell Potential
“When buying a single-story house, you should consider the resale value should you think of reselling it in case of a circumstance that can happen. Look at the growth rate of that area. Due to the high demand of these types of houses it is [easy] to resell them and depending on the growth rate of an area, it increases in value significantly.”
Single-story homes have a lot of benefits and are often in higher demand. This bodes well for future resale opportunities.
There are many benefits to downsizing into a one-story home. Doing so while demand for your current house is high might make it easier than ever to make a move. Let’s connect if you’re ready to purchase the single-story home you need while homes are so affordable today.
In today’s real estate market, setting the right price for your house is one of the most valuable things you can do.
According to the U.S. Economic Outlook by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home prices nationwide are forecasted to increase 4.7% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2021. This means experts anticipate home values will continue climbing into next year. Today, low inventory is largely keeping prices from depreciating. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, notes:
“Looking at the sheer number of buyers, low mortgage rates, and limited sellers, the strength of home prices–which are now growing at the highest pace since January 2018–makes sense.”
When it comes to pricing your home, the goal is to increase visibility and drive more buyers your way. Instead of trying to win the negotiation with one buyer, you should price your house so that demand is maximized and more buyers want to take a look.
As a seller, you might be thinking about pricing your house on the high end while so many of today’s buyers are searching harder than ever just to find a home to purchase. You’re thinking, higher price, greater profit, right? But here’s the thing – a high price tag does not mean you’re going to cash in big on the sale. It’s actually more likely to deter buyers and have them looking at the houses your neighbors are selling instead.
Even today, when the advantage tips toward sellers because there are so few houses for sale, your house is more likely to sit on the market longer or require a price drop that can send buyers running in the other direction if it isn’t priced just right.
It’s important to make sure your house is priced correctly by working in partnership with a trusted real estate professional. When you price it competitively, you won’t be negotiating with one buyer over the price. Instead, you’ll have multiple buyers competing for the home, and that’s what ultimately increases the final sale price.
The key is making sure your house is priced to sell immediately. That way, it will be seen by the most buyers. More than one of them may be interested, and your house will be more likely to sell at a competitive price.
If you're thinking about listing your house this fall, let’s discuss how to price it right so you can maximize your exposure and your return.
4 years ago, a small group of reefers began a partnership with an orphanage in Guatemala. Our own Christina Watson, who adopted 2 children from Guatemala, had a special relationship with this orphanage, called Casa Bernabe. Her second child lived there for 4 years during the difficult adoption process. As a way to give back, Christina began leading mission trips of Ocean Reefers back to her children's beginning.
Center Rear - The 2017 Team led by Christina Watson and Mike & Laurie Tein.
When it started, groups of 28 to 35 traveled down to the orphanage and painted, babysat, built fences, fixed roofs; taught Zumba, volleyball, and soccer. Of all these things, the soccer was by far and away the most popular with the kids.
Pastor Carlos blesses and distributes food in Guatemala barrio
“Each trip, we brought new gear, professional coaches, and a lot of players. We've been back 5 times and have made our mark in several ways, but soccer has always been our jam. So when asked to take their program to the next level, the generous people of our little hamlet came through.
In late February, and just in time for the lockdown, the brand-new artificial turf soccer field was completed, right on campus! In a culture where soccer is such a big part of daily life, in a place where the rains turn the concrete-like dirt to a mud slick, this gift is one that the kids could barely wait to use. The plaque reads: We thank God for the generosity of the good people in Ocean Reef for this soccer field.
The rain turns the concrete-like dirt to mud. The astroturf was completed in February 2020
Our 6th mission trip was scheduled for June 13-20 but had to be canceled due to COVID19. In place of a live visit, we have funded 4 "feeding events" where we sent funds to the local church who bought supplies and rallied the volunteers to distribute food to the neediest areas.
The beautiful thing about our trips is watching not only the smiles on the faces of the orphans that we have come to bless but also the smiles of the team members, whose hearts are changed in ways they never imagined,” says Watson.
Eve Tatlock entertains a youngster on the 2019 Trip.
The Ocean Reef Orphans groups include members, employees, and friends of this community. They anticipate return trips in safer times when the borders open. The team will find more ways to help. So to be a part of this incredible journey or learn more about us please go to orcfororphans.com.
Christina Watson brings years of business experience to Watson Luxury Properties. Her business management skills have been put to good use, coaching the family firm to new heights. She is a licensed sales associate as well, and under the tutelage of her sister, Bobbie, she has learned the ins and outs of the real estate market on the reef. Christina also leads a mission trip to an orphanage in Guatemala where her daughter lived before she came home. Together with the generous people in Ocean Reef, the team have conducted 6 trips and made a great impact. Christina is also an advocate of the Academy at Ocean Reef where she has served on the Board and where her 2 children attended for many years.
Join in Lobstermania at the Ocean Reef Club this July 29th and July 30th.
VALUABLE INFORMATION - Link to Monroe County Sheriffs Office Lobster Mini Season Information
This July 29 marks the beginning of Ocean Reef 'Lobstermania.' Although it's a short two day precursor to the official opening of Lobster Season in August, it's the perfect reason to indulge in a month-long rental or purchase of a home at North Key Largo Real Estate's private fishing and golf club. How else will you catch and consume your delicious fresh Florida Spiny Lobster?
LOBSTERMANIA - untangle the secret of how to net the right sized bug...and you get a madcap weekend full of fun competitions, prizes and activities. It's always the last Wednesday and Thursday of July - when the Florida Keys in general and Ocean Reef Club in particular, go crazy for lobster.
Members of the Ocean Reef Club and their guests are offered two days to forage and then feast! While the focus is on the hunt for lobster – there is life beyond the bug.
Lobstermania, for those who want to relax as the festivities unfold offers an alternative schedule. But for the adventuring crustacean hunters among you - once you have your bag limit - drop your catch off by 5pm and return later to enjoy a freshly prepared dinner.
LOBSTERMANIA TWO-DAY COMPETITION WEDNESDAY, JULY 29 & THURSDAY, JULY 30
9:00AM – 4:00PM
Heaviest lobster wins in this two-day competition. Bring your bugs to the weigh scale outside Orvis, dock side to enter this complimentary competition. Details: 305-367-6526
AWARDS PRESENTATION
THURSDAY, JULY 30 5:00 P.M.
BURGEE BAR
All weigh-in participants invited.
COOK-YOUR-CATCH
DINNER SPECIAL
WEDNESDAY, JULY 29 & THURSDAY, JULY 30
ISLANDER, GIANNI & BURGEE BAR
Drop your lobster off by 5:00 p.m. and return to enjoy a succulent dinner, freshly caught with your own two hands.
Reservations: 305-367-5931
Link to Florida Fish & Wildlife Conservation Commission Lobster Mini Season Informational Film by FWC Officer Bobby Dube
Beyond the excitement of a fresh-from-the-ocean delicacy only available here in the Florida Keys, there is everything else to love. When you can fly right into the Ocean Reef Airport's private 4,000 ft runway, perhaps it isn’t unreasonable to throw your catch in a cooler and bring it home with you.
But why leave when the good life and luxury surround you? The immaculately tended, well-masterminded homes, the nature, the azure blue water that wraps and weaves its glistening way throughout this North Key Largo private fishing and golf club all beckon you to stay.
LAUNCH YOUR BUG HUNT FROM YOUR DOCK & GO
The scene here fits perfectly with the concept of epic Yoga sunrise and sunset poses. Whether you want to hunt lobster or immerse yourself in golf, fishing, tennis or croquet. The hustle of Miami is 60 miles away! And the rich culture, both literary and piratical, of Key West is 120 miles straight down US1.
And although the Ocean Reef Club marinas are occasionally home to south Florida’s largest collection of mega-yachts, the way the Equity Members feel about keeping their sanity intact, it’s no surprise it’s incredibly peaceful and with a dress code, rather well-heeled.
Truly, the Ocean Reef Club is a place in which to invest. This is a one-of-a-kind experience that many do find difficult to leave behind. So the quandary is to buy and live, to buy for investment, or to rent once in a while?
As ‘Lobstermania’ presents the good life, and a perfect opportunity to sample the adventure surrounding you here with a test of one's bug hunting skills. It also offers the opportunity to contemplate one's options.
Michael Watson MLL Career Highlights Hi There! My name is Michael, brother of Bobbie & Christina Watson. I am a Baltimorean and proud graduate of the University of Virginia where I was a 4X All-American lacrosse player. Lacrosse has always been a big part of my life. I went on to represent my country as a US Team World Champion, played 10 years professionally, and am currently a member of the National Lacrosse Hall of Fame.
I began my real estate career in 1999 in beautiful sunny San Diego -where my love for the ocean was rivaled only by my appetite for good Mexican cuisine. I spent the early part of my career representing buyers and sellers in the mid-size multi-family properties. I moved on to Director of Acquisitions for a private equity firm focusing on residential condominium conversion development in the San Diego, Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Austin markets.
Although I loved the northern beaches of Cardiff/Encinitas and never thought I would leave my oasis by the sea, the family ties here in ORC kept calling me back east. I traded one paradise for another and brought with me a diverse real estate skill set in commercial apartment brokerage, office & condo development, and residential sales to the team at WLP.
I have been coming to the Ocean Reef Club since birth as the son of long-time members, Jim & Joan Watson and now I am happy to call it home. My clients rely on my strong work ethic, positive competitive spirit, combined with a calm demeanor. I have built a strong referral network by remaining devoted to my clients and always being someone who they can count on. Staying true to these values has allowed me to grow quickly within the Ocean Reef community where I support our local businesses by serving on the board of the Ocean Reef Chamber of Commerce
If I’m not out showing property I can be found on the golf course, boating, or playing tennis. If I am not getting my exercise in the great outdoors you can find me at our state-of-the-art fitness center where I enjoy the boot camp, yoga, and spin classes. Anything else you would like to know just ask. My door is always open.
Visit Michael Watson on Linkedin Visit Michael Watson MLL Career Highlights on YouTube
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Come and see North Key Largo Real Estate at the Ocean Reef Club. Enjoy the fabulous family friendly festivities on offer.
To keep up with the Watsons follow their antics on Instagram and Facebook. Staying up to date with events on The Reef in these interesting times has never been easier with the Ocean Reef Press. Don't lose sight of home prices and new listings in this always interesting marketplace.
Watson Luxury Properties is based at Ocean Reef, right on the Golf Course! We are North Key Largo Real Estate's property experts who really 'Know The Reef.'
We know Real Estate at the Ocean Reef Club as well as Ocean Reef Club Rental Properties. Specialists in a broad field for many decades, our family team can help you with your investment or home search.
Perhaps you began your search in the nearby Key Largo Real Estate market but didn't find what you were seeking. Allow us to help you find your home in North Key Largo Real Estate's exceptional family-oriented environment.
Watson Luxury Properties at Ocean Reef Club - has been member owned and family operated since 1998
'Where Quality Service Is A Family Value'
The Watson family adheres to this adage, doggedly. We deliver client services with consistent levels of excellence.
Ask us anything, with over 50 years of combined experience in North Key Largo's exclusive Ocean Reef Club Real Estate sales and rentals, we 'Know The Reef!'
Our team is never happier than when we are out on property showings. Whether it is a water view, a slot for your boat or a peaceful golf course abode, we just know we have the perfect spot for you.
The Reef's full service marina offers a perfect place to purchase a slip for your boat. It is a world class marina and boasts some of the world's most elegant and quietly famous, beautiful yachts.
13B FAIRWAY LAKES - WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF THE GOLF COURSE
PERFECTLY APPOINTED MARINA SLIPS FOR EASE OF ACCESS
Our two championship golf courses offer open fairways and beautiful foliage - with some challenging greens. What about a game of Golf this Independence Day weekend? Come see a little slice of heaven from your golf cart on our beautiful award-winning landscaped roads and pathways. This oasis never gets tiresome.
MICHAEL WATSON - ALWAYS IN THE SPORTING FRAME OF MIND
Because we are family operated we know a real estate showing is never 'just' a showing.
Please join us for a true lifestyle experience, by way of a showing. If your search for Premium Key Largo Real Estate didn't satisfy your tastes, we are happy to offer Ocean Reef Club Real Estate listings to improve the day.
And if COVID travel is restrictive we offer the ever more popular, increasingly effective virtual 'in person' tours
FABULOUS FEATURE? WE THINK SO! For your piece of paradise think about this water front land. This one is on the market and waiting for you. What an open water view too! Start building your dream home now in the friendly and safe confines of the Ocean Reef Club. We can't say enough good things about this view and the potential for your future enjoyment here.
Of course our family team would love to meet you to discuss your options. Our slower pace can really do wonders for everyone's state of mind. in particular clearing ones own mind to ascertain what is truly going to make you and everyone you love and cherish, absolutely happy.
North Key Largo Real Estate as it is known to locals offers buyers premium listings wrapped in this special environment. Watson's team offer condominiums, and homes with or without yacht slips, as well as waterfront homes, wooded hammock homes and homes with that great Golf Course view.
One feature many love about The Reef is 'safety.' The Reef is a well managed haven of elegance and a way of life that truly welcomes families within the community.
You can find us at 9 Barracuda Lane, Key Largo or call us and we would be happy to meet you socially. Perhaps join us you over the Independence Day weekend. Chat with us during Tee time on the Golf course. Or with lines in the water, we love to spend time in and on the ocean.
Enjoy Summer Golf - or just golfing in general - we've discovered that choosing to get your game right starts here. It really really does. Especially with the Big Cups Golf Tournament. A tradition not to be missed.
From Scott Kirkwood, Director of Golf, from the "Golden Tees""We have an exciting slate of summer tournaments this year, and the next one is coming up on Saturday, July 4. The annual Independence Day Big Cup Golf Tournament will be held on the Dolphin Course.
'You can make your own tee-time on ForeTees and the format will be individual stroke play. The catch is, the holes will be much larger than normal, more than twice the size! See how low you can go with our always popular Fourth of July tradition,' says Kirkwood.
If you are in love with the idea of Golf but cant imagine yourself out there, for love nor money, with no clue what to do. Or have played before but know you can do better, consider a training session with Derek Swoboda, who talks about Bioswing Dynamics and the Blueprint For Your Golf Swing. He is going to measure your Shoulder Plane, Torso Plane and Hip Plane and then you'll get to see how good you can really be.
North Key Largo is our Ocean Reef Club home and here at Watson we are so excited for the upcoming Independence Day 2020 events, primary amongst them would be the fireworks on Buccaneer Island from 9pm to 930pm. If you aren’t scheduling something from the list golf, fishing, shopping, drive in movie, this year it's Robin William's in 'Jumanji' it's not too late to register for Independence Day 2020 Ocean Reef activities.
Or simply arrive and enjoy. And what fabulous choices. Whether it's a new home or a fun Independence Day weekend with family and the possibility of a prime piece of Ocean Reef Club Real Estate. We hope you enjoy the decades of expertise presented to you by the member owned, family operated Watson Luxury Properties team. And we can't wait to meet you. We are here and loving the life, ready to share that enthusiasm with you.
Cheers!
#golfclubabode #boatlsip #yachtmarina #worldclassyachts #internationalairport #waterview #OceanReefRealEsatet #OceanReefRentalProperties #KeyLargoRealEstate #watsonorc #realestate #luxurycondo #luxurylife #oceanreefclub #keylargorealestate #floridakeysrealestate #watsonluxuryproperties #marketing #realestatemarketing #newlisting #northkeylargorealestate #watsonluxuryproperties
Dear Fellow Members,This is a general update on a number of Club related matters.CURRENT FINANCIAL CONDITIONYour Board and Club Management continue to take a variety of fiscal measures to minimize the economic impact on the Club. Everyone should rest easy for the moment regarding the financial impact to our Club. While we will suffer significant cash losses for the foreseeable future, we are in a very strong financial condition. We have over $60 million of cash in the bank and no debt borrowings. As a result, we do not envision any special charges or assessments related to the Coronavirus. (We will however, have our normal annual repair and maintenance charge which will be reflected in your April statement.) We will discuss in detail, the economic impact on the Club’s finances and the likely short term and long term consequences caused by the virus during our Annual Meeting.During the Annual Meeting, we will also provide the Membership with a detailed update on our major Capital Projects (Associate Parking Garage, Ocean Room building renovation, Golf Clubhouse renovation, Lagoon upgrades) and any impact on anticipated completion timing based on the Coronavirus situation.NUMBER OF PEOPLE AT THE CLUBLast week, there were an estimated 1,550 Members at the Club. More than 93% were Equity Members and their families. The remaining people were comprised of Social Members that also work daily in the community at our Medical Center, Banks and Real Estate offices as an example, along with a few Social Members who were already staying over in long-term rentals or as Designated Users of Equity. As you know, The Inn, Vacation Rental and Marina Rental program has been closed since March 22nd, per the Monroe County Emergency Management directive. The current Member population is less than 50% of the historical count during this same period over the past couple of years.